January jobs report postponed: Here’s what we know about the labor market right now

The U.S. federal government partially shut down on January 31 after Congress failed to pass a funding bill, temporarily halting operations at non-essential agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). As a result, the January jobs report, originally scheduled for release on February 6, is delayed. The shutdown ended on February 3, and the BLS confirmed the next day that the January jobs report will be published on February 11.

The jobs report is one of the most closely watched measures of the U.S. economy, so even a short delay can feel significant. The report shows how hiring, unemployment and wages change month to month and helps set expectations for future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. While the report is delayed five days, the impact on markets and Fed decisions should be minimal.

Until the official government numbers are published, several alternative data sources can help shed light on the state of the economy. Both the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Labor Market Indicators and the ADP National Employment Report show the labor market is a mixed bag, though relatively stable.

What to expect from the January jobs report once it is released

Recent data suggests the labor market is stable but growing slowly, with hiring continuing at a moderate pace and a somewhat elevated unemployment rate. When released, the January jobs report will show whether those trends held over the past month.

January’s report will provide updated figures on how many jobs were added or lost, whether the unemployment rate has changed and how fast wages are growing. Together, these measures offer a snapshot of broader labor market momentum and whether conditions are improving for businesses and workers.

December’s jobs report provides some useful context for the upcoming January release. In the final month of 2025, employers added 50,000 jobs, the unemployment rate ticked slightly down to 4.4% and average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year over year. Hiring remained concentrated in the health care, food services and social assistance sectors, while retail lost jobs.

December’s report also suggested the labor market ended 2025 on relatively solid footing, with job growth continuing, albeit at a slowed pace, and wage gains moderating from earlier highs.

What other data sources can tell us about the job market right now

When the official jobs report is delayed, economists and policymakers look to alternative data sources to gauge current labor market conditions. While none can fully replace the BLS’ jobs report, they can help fill in some of the information gaps.

Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators

Updated twice a month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Labor Market Indicators show real-time data on hiring, unemployment and layoffs. They combine official government data with private-sector information such as online job postings and unemployment claims.

For January, the Chicago Fed’s indicators forecast an unemployment rate of 4.35%, about the same as December’s actual unemployment rate of 4.38%. They also show little change in layoffs and a steady hiring rate among unemployed workers. Together, the forecasted data points to a relatively stable labor market.

ADP private payroll report

The ADP National Employment Report tracks payroll changes among private employers and is released independently of the federal government. While it doesn’t always match the official BLS jobs report, it often gauges the general direction of broader hiring trends.

ADP reported that private employers added 22,000 jobs in January, with gains concentrated in education and health services. Hiring picked up among mid-sized businesses, while small businesses saw zero gains and larger employers posted a decrease.

Will the delayed jobs report impact the Fed’s next rate cut decision?

The Fed monitors hiring and wage trends to inform its decisions on interest rates. Slower job growth and easing wage pressures, for example, can support the case for future rate cuts. At the same time, a strong labor market could give policymakers a reason to keep rates higher for longer.

With the January jobs report delayed just five days, there’s expected to be minimal impact on the data the Fed can utilize to make decisions at its next meeting. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17 and 18, the Fed will have two jobs reports to help inform its rate decisions.

At the Fed’s January 28 meeting – where the FOMC held the federal funds rate steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% – Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers are continuing to base their decisions on new economic data.

“Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” Powell said, adding that other indicators have shown “little change in recent months.”

Will the delayed jobs report impact investors?

For investors, the BLS’s monthly jobs report is one of the most important signals of the economy’s future direction. It influences expectations for corporate earnings, interest rates and overall market conditions. A delayed report leads to a critical information gap at a time when markets may already be sensitive to changes in growth and inflation.

Lack of clarity caused by a data blackout can contribute to short-term market volatility. Without fresh employment data, markets may react more strongly to other economic releases or statements from Fed officials. Expectations for the timing of future rate cuts could also shift more quickly in response to alternative, more specific data points than they would if the full jobs report were available.

Until the publication of the January jobs report – and indeed in times of uncertainty in general – investors should focus on their broader, long-term strategy rather than short-term volatility. Even if the timing of information changes, the fundamental drivers of the market remain the same.

View Disclosures