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Eye On The Market

Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering heights

PublishedJan 1, 2026|Time to read1 min

Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management

      The market capitalization of four hyperscalers and the semiconductor ecosystem companies they rely on has grown from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in just a few years, and a broader group of 42 artificial intelligence (AI)-related companies has generated 65% to 75% of S&P 500 earnings, profits and capital spending since ChatGPT’s launch in November 2022. Is this moat really indestructible?

       

      In the 2026 Eye on the Market Outlook, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset and Wealth Management, Michael Cembalest, focuses on four medium-term risks: U.S. power generation constraints, China scaling the moat on its own, Taiwan and a “metaverse moment” for hyperscaler profits after $1.3 trillion of capital expenditure and research and development.

       

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      Michael Cembalest

      Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management

      Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, a global leader in investment management and private banking with $4 trillion of client assets under management worldwide as of Janu...

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      The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

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