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Top Market Takeaways

Quick shot: Corporate earnings preview: Q4 2024

PublishedJan 21, 2025

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

    Top Market Takeaways Quick Shot

      Earnings season is underway and a key question for investors is whether company fundamentals can support higher-than-average market valuations. We are optimistic that they can. We expect fourth quarter earnings growth to accelerate compared to the third quarter based on positive revisions in U.S. growth estimates for both 2024 and 2025, a healthy consumer and improved business optimism.

       

      Many of the companies that have already reported, including the major banks, have exceeded market expectations. This could bode well for the companies left to report. Overall, we anticipate earnings per share (EPS) growth of about 14% for the fourth quarter, surpassing the market's expectation of 11% as well as the 8% growth seen in the previous quarter. Analysts predict year-over-year earnings growth in seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, and we expect technology, industrials, utilities and financials to lead the pack. These sectors are expected to benefit from increased capital investment in artificial intelligence, infrastructure and supply chain diversification.


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      As mentioned in our 2025 Outlook, we expect corporate earnings to be an important driver of equity returns in the year-ahead. Encouraging early reports, particularly from major corporations and financial institutions, set the stage for a robust earnings landscape, and we continue to expect U.S. equity markets to climb higher over the course of the year.


      Earnings are expected to inflect higher in 2025


      Sources: Morgan Stanley, FactSet. Data as of January 17, 2024.
      Chart showing YOY earnings per share growth for the S&P 500 from Q4 of 2015 through Q4 of 2025.



      All market and economic data as of 01/17/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.


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      Our Top Market Takeaways for January 21st, 2025.

       

      The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

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