OUTLOOK | 2026Promise and Pressure: Investing in the new frontier of AI, fragmentation and inflation

Investing in 2026 means navigating three powerful forces: artificial intelligence (AI), global fragmentation and inflation. The era of low inflation and seamless globalization has given way to rapid technological change, shifting alliances and more volatile prices. This year’s Outlook explores how AI-driven productivity, persistent inflation and a fractured world order intersect, and considers how resolve and agility may help investors turn structural change into strategic advantage to reach their goals.

Artificial intelligence: Opportunity and disruption

AI is rapidly transforming productivity and corporate profits, with investment and adoption accelerating across industries. While the potential for a market bubble is rising, current gains remain supported by strong earnings and real-world applications. Investors should focus on identifying leaders and smart adopters, while remaining alert to signs of overexuberance. Exposure to AI is increasingly essential for long-term growth, but selectivity and ongoing vigilance are key to navigating this evolving opportunity.

Fragmentation: The end of seamless globalization

Global trade and supply chains are shifting as countries prioritize resilience and security over efficiency. Tariffs, onshoring and new regional alliances are reshaping capital flows, creating both challenges and opportunities across sectors and geographies. Investors should seek out industries and regions that benefit from supply chain reconfiguration and resource security. In this era of fragmentation, diversification across regions and sectors is more important than ever to manage risk and capture growth.

Inflation: A new regime

Inflation has become a central concern for portfolio construction, driven by persistent deficits, supply constraints and changing consumer psychology. Higher and more volatile inflation requires investors to stress-test portfolios and focus on strategies that help maintain purchasing power. Rebalancing and broadening exposures to sectors and assets that can withstand inflation shocks will be critical for sustaining long-term wealth. Proactive planning and flexibility are essential in this new inflationary environment.

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View our webcast, Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure

Discover how to navigate a new frontier and position your portfolio for success as a new economic cycle brings both Promise and Pressure.

Key topics include:

  • Harnessing AI for growth and managing disruption
  • Identifying opportunity in a fragmented global landscape
  • Building portfolio resilience amidst persistent inflation

Date: November 18, 2025
Time: 11:00 a.m. ET

 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

 

Key Risks

 

Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax-efficient, and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments, and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise, and investors may get back less than they invested.

 

Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivatives creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss.

 

Investing in fixed income products is subject to certain risks, including interest rate, credit, inflation, call, prepayment and reinvestment risk. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to substantial gain or loss.

 

The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to “stock market risk” meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.

 

Investing in Structured Notes involves a number of significant risks. We have set forth certain risk factors and other investment considerations relating to the investment below. Not all investments are suitable (or in the best interest) for all investors. You should analyze the Structured Notes based on your individual circumstances, taking into account such factors as investment objectives, tolerance for risk, and liquidity needs.

 

General Risks & Consideration

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g., equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

 

Non-Reliance

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

 

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

 

Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1) when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2) when a J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3) when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4) when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect to investment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because of relationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.

 

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio’s investment objective.

 

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

 

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

 

The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services.

 

LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR FIRM AND INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS AT FINRA BROKERCHECK.

To learn more about J. P. Morgan’s investment business, including our accounts, products and services, as well as our relationship with you, please review our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Form CRS (PDF) and Guide to Investment Services and Brokerage Products.

Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

JPMorgan Chase and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your personal tax, legal and accounting advisors for advice before engaging in any transaction.

Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.

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J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Products not available in all states.

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