Data returns with November 2025 CPI report: Inflation lower than expected
Editorial staff, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 indicated that headline inflation rose 2.7% year over year, well below the forecasted rate of 3.1%.
- While the data showed a decline in year-over-year inflation, our strategists would approach the report with some caution since it’s the first following the prolonged government shutdown (which may have impacted the data-collection process).
- While the November CPI is another data point for the Federal Reserve (Fed), our strategists do not expect this report to meaningfully influence the central bank’s view on the near-term directory of inflation. Our strategists still see the Fed cutting interest rates once in early 2026.
November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report put an end to the inflation data drought. There’s good news: Prices are not rising as quickly as expected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), year-over-year headline inflation came in at 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in September.
This month’s report contains the first inflation numbers collected since the end of the recent government shutdown. The BLS outright canceled October’s CPI release, leaving policymakers, business leaders and investors relying on alternative measures regarding the direction of prices for the past month. Now the numbers are back – and they’re a little messy, generating even more questions about monetary policy.
What’s different about the November CPI report?
The CPI is usually a straightforward monthly check-up on the cost of living. To produce the report, the BLS surveys thousands of businesses and households, tracking price changes for a basket of goods ranging from eggs to rent.
As mentioned, this fall’s 43-day government shutdown threw a wrench in the data-collection process. With October a permanent question mark in the historical record, we’re essentially jumping straight from September to November. The BLS cautioned that the data released today will not include the usual month-over-month comparisons for October.
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What could the November CPI report mean for the Federal Reserve looking forward?
Looking ahead to 2026, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) playbook is cautious. Updated projections show most officials expect just one more cut next year, a slower pace than many investors had hoped for. Although today’s inflation report mostly validates that approach, it’s important not to overanalyze the numbers given the collection gaps. Policymakers can afford to be patient, letting the data guide the timing of their decisions.
December’s CPI report, which is slated for release on January 13, could help better inform the Fed when committee members first meet on January 27–28.
What could the November CPI report mean for investors?
In this environment, chasing the latest headline is a risky strategy. Lower-than-expected inflation may sound like good news, but we simply don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle. Indeed, the initial market reaction was muted relative to what one might anticipate from a much-weaker-than-expected inflation report. Immediately following the announcement at 8:30 a.m. ET, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields declined by roughly 2 basis points. Market participants seem to be approaching the data with a similar dose of caution.
For investors, the haze surrounding the CPI report is a good reminder to focus on portfolio durability.
Diversification is more than just a buzzword here – it’s the primary defense against uncertainty. By spreading exposure across different regions and asset classes, investors can better weather the volatility that comes with a transition year, capturing growth where it appears while cushioning against the inevitable bumps along the way. However, it’s important to remember that while diversification can serve as a hedge, it does not guarantee protection against loss.
The bottom line
In this unique case, the return of official data generates more questions than it answers. That said, while our strategists are skeptical that the recent inflation data has moderated as much as would be suggested by November’s report, they still expect inflation to moderate back toward the Fed’s 2% target throughout the course of 2026.
For investors, watching the markets will be a key step during this period of inflation uncertainty.
As always, consult a J.P. Morgan advisor to learn how these developments could affect your investing portfolio.
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