J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions: Navigating change, finding opportunity
Executive Director, Head of U.S. Wealth Management Portfolio Advisory Group
- The investment landscape is evolving, but opportunities remain for diversified, long-term investors.
- U.S. and global equities, bonds and all offer attractive potential returns.
- Technology and fiscal policy are driving new sources of growth and productivity.
- Diversification – across asset classes and geographies – is more important than ever.
As we look toward 2026, the investment landscape is marked by transformation and complexity. J.P. Morgan’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), now in its 30th year, provides a forward-looking framework to help you navigate these changes. Our strategists’ research highlights that, even amid uncertainty, disciplined investors who remain diversified and informed can continue to find compelling opportunities.
The big picture: Shifting market landscapes and silver linings
This year’s LTCMAs are shaped by three influential forces:
Economic nationalism
Across the globe, shifting political dynamics and evolving policies are reshaping markets. Trade tensions and labor shortages have become more pronounced, but governments are responding with robust fiscal measures. Infrastructure spending and incentives for business investment are helping to narrow growth gaps between regions and support economic resilience.
Fiscal activism and investment
Governments are taking a proactive stance, not just discussing growth but actively investing in it. Fiscal stimulus is driving up deficits, yet it is also fueling corporate profits and productivity. This environment creates a backdrop of strong earnings and new opportunities, particularly in sectors linked to infrastructure and innovation.
Technology’s productivity boom
The pace of technological advancement continues to accelerate. Innovations in artificial intelligence, automation and digitalization are boosting productivity and reshaping entire industries. For investors, this means the potential for outsized returns in companies and sectors that are positioned to harness these trends.
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What J.P. Morgan’s LTCMAs could mean for your investment allocation
Despite a modest dip in U.S. growth expectations, the outlook for long-term returns remains constructive. The classic 60/40 allocation – 60% equities, 40% bonds – continues to offer solid potential, with projected returns holding steady from last year. However, the nuances within each asset class are where the real opportunities lie:
Equities
U.S. stocks remain a cornerstone of strength, supported by resilient corporate profits even as valuations stay elevated. Global equities are expected to double over the next decade and emerging markets offer even greater growth potential.
Annualized Return Assumptions by Year - Equities
Bonds
After years of subdued yields, bond investors have reason for renewed optimism. Higher starting yields and steeper yield curves point to improved returns, especially for intermediate treasuries and high yield bonds. Increased inflation volatility is resetting risk premiums, making bonds a more attractive component of diversified portfolios.
The power of diversification
One of the most important messages from this year’s LTCMAs is the enduring value of diversification. Currency movements, particularly a weaker U.S. dollar, are expected to boost returns for international assets. By looking beyond your home market and incorporating global opportunities, you can benefit from both higher returns and reduced risk.
Risks to watch heading into 2026
While the outlook is positive, it’s not without risks. Economic nationalism and policy shifts can create market friction and uncertainty. Inflation is expected to be slightly higher, and volatility may increase in certain areas. It remains important for your long-term assets to be invested in strategies designed to outpace inflation and adapt to changing market conditions. Work with your J.P. Morgan advisor to ensure your portfolio remains aligned with your goals and risk tolerance.
Annualized U.S. Inflation Assumptions by Year
Annualized U.S. Gross Domestic Product Assumptions by Year
Looking ahead: Opportunity in change
The 2026 LTCMAs reflect a world that is both familiar and new. The forces of politics, policy and technology are reshaping markets, but the fundamentals of investing remain unchanged: Stay diversified, focus on your long-term objectives and be ready to adapt.
Whether you’re building a portfolio for retirement, saving for a major purchase, or seeking to grow your wealth, the outlook for stocks, bonds remains attractive. By staying informed and working closely with your J.P. Morgan advisor, you can position yourself to benefit from the opportunities ahead.
These assumptions are based on our view of the world over the next 10 to 15 years. Markets can change and it’s important to review your strategy regularly. With a thoughtful approach and a focus on the long term, you can navigate shifting landscapes and find your own silver linings in 2026 and beyond.
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Executive Director, Head of U.S. Wealth Management Portfolio Advisory Group
