2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Opportunity amid uncertainty

Spring got off to a rocky start, but risk assets have posted impressive rebounds since the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. U.S. stocks rallied over 9% since then and are now back in the green on the year. International equities fared relatively well through the risk-off episode and are up an impressive 15% year-to-date. Core bonds also posted positive returns and other defensive assets like gold (+20% year-to-date) are still shining bright.

As investors, we welcome the recovery… but do so with humility. Trade policy negotiations are ongoing and the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation is a story to be written in the months ahead. Congress is working through its effort to extend the tax cuts made effective at the start of 2018 (an ostensible near-term support for the economy), but budget hawks are scrutinizing the potential long-term impact to U.S. government deficits and debt. A variety of other questions have yet to be answered, perpetuating the air of uncertainty that has defined 2025 so far.

Our Mid-Year Outlook aims to help investors find opportunity amid that uncertainty by addressing five essential questions about the path ahead. As ever, we’re focused on helping you design the right portfolio and plan to meet your financial needs and goals.

Explore more to learn about key considerations for enhancing portfolio resilience, capturing outperformance opportunities and navigating what promises to be a dynamic second half of the year.

All market and economic data as of 05/20/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

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