MID-YEAR OUTLOOK | 2023The Recession Obsession

Backed up by client data, here are actionable insights to help you position your portfolio for weaker growth, but stronger capital markets.

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Key insights from client and market data

7 of 30

Number of weeks our clients have been net buyers of equities since the market bottomed.

1 of 5

Number of stocks in the Russell 3000 index that have fallen more than 75% from their 2021 highs.

$150B

Increase in clients' allocations to cash over the past 12 months.

$7B

Client capital allocated to real assets and private credit.

47%

U.S. clients that are materially underweight Europe relative to developed equity benchmarks.

Rebuild your equity portfolio now for the next bull market

Our clients were right to trim their equity exposure last year. Now it’s time to reposition portfolios for the next bull market.

Manage your concentrated positions

If you have wealth concentrated in a single asset, you know a big loss will bite. But you might not understand the full impact on your financial plans.

You may hold too much cash and not enough bonds.

In the last 12 months our clients significantly boosted their allocations to cash. That made sense as rates rose. But over the next 12 months clients will likely need to reinvest with lower rates.

Know the risks - and opportunities - in regional U.S. banks and real estate

Rising rates can wreak havoc. Risks now look acute for regional U.S. banks and commercial real estate. But are there profits to be found in the pain?

You probably stay too close to home with your investments

Over two-thirds of our U.S. clients have no exposure to China and around half are underweight Europe. Valuation discounts could make this moment a good entry point.

THE UPSHOTAt a moment of doubt, we see promise.

We understand why many investors doubt the recent rally. Inflation and interest rates are still high. Growth is slowing. Recession is coming.

Examining the same set of facts, we see promise.

Here’s how we can work together

Whether you want to invest on your own or find an advisor to guide you, we offer a range of services to support you throughout your journey.

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INVEST ON YOUR OWN J.P. Morgan
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Build your investment portfolio on your own with unlimited $0 commission online trades.

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Personal Advisors

Work with a team of fiduciary advisors who will create a personalized financial plan, match you to expert-built portfolios and provide ongoing advice remotely.

WORK WITH OUR TEAM OF ADVISORS J.P. Morgan
Personal Advisors

Work with a team of fiduciary advisors who will create a personalized financial plan, match you to expert-built portfolios and provide ongoing advice remotely.

WORK ONE-ON-ONE WITH AN ADVISOR J.P. Morgan
Private Client Advisor

Work 1:1 with a dedicated advisor in your local community to create a personalized financial strategy and build a custom investment portfolio.

WORK ONE-ON-ONE WITH AN ADVISOR J.P. Morgan
Private Client Advisor

Work 1:1 with a dedicated advisor in your local community to create a personalized financial strategy and build a custom investment portfolio.

Mid-Year Outlook 2023: The recession obsession

Investors may have doubts about the recent rally, and with good reason. Inflation and interest rates remain high, growth is slowing and recession fears persist. However, we see promise for long-term investors. Join us as our team of specialists discusses five actionable insights that may help you navigate the current environment:

  • Rebuild your equity portfolio now for the next bull market
  • Don’t stay too close to home with your investments
  • Manage your concentrated positions
  • Don’t hold too much cash and not enough bonds
  • Know the risks—and opportunities—in regional U.S. banks and real estate

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