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Top Market Takeaways

Quick shot: The impact of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs proposal on the markets so far

PublishedFeb 18, 2025

Global Investment Strategist

    Top Market Takeaways Quick Shot

      Mo Tariffs, Mo Problems? If “The Notorious B.I.G.”, also known as “Biggie Smalls”, were alive today at 52, it's unlikely he'd be rapping about international trade policies and tariffs. However, the timeless message from his 1997 hit "Mo Money, Mo Problems" shares similarities with President Donald Trump's recent tariff announcements. These efforts to protect and enhance U.S. economic interests through reciprocal tariffs introduce new complexities and potential issues, much like the challenges that accompany increased wealth and success in Biggie's lyrics.


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      Recently, President Trump signed an action to develop a plan for imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trade partners. The administration has already set 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and announced a 25% tax on U.S. steel and aluminum imports. The new plan proposes country-specific levies to rebalance trade relations, addressing not only tariffs but also non-tariff barriers like subsidies and value-added taxes. While these measures aim to protect U.S. interests, they also introduce potential trade tensions and economic uncertainty.

       

      Interestingly, the equity markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 rallying towards all-time highs. The proposal for reciprocal tariffs is seen as less severe than previous campaign promises, suggesting a potential opening for negotiations with other countries. However, as Biggie's lyrics remind us, the pursuit of seemingly beneficial goals – whether wealth or fair trade – comes with its own set of challenges that must be carefully managed to avoid negative repercussions.


      Emerging markets are most impacted by reciprocal tariffs


      Sources: Deutsche Bank. Calculated using 10,000 tariff lines.
      The graph shows the potential changes in average weighted tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various countries and regions



      All market and economic data as of 02/14/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.


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      Ajene Oden

      Global Investment Strategist

      AJ Oden is a Global Investment Strategist for J.P. Morgan’s Global Investment Strategy team. AJ, in partnership with asset class leaders and the Chief Investment Officer and team, is responsible for developing and communicating the firm’s economic...

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