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Top Market Takeaways

How will Q1 corporate earnings be impacted by policy uncertainties?

PublishedApr 16, 2025

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

    Top Market Takeaways

      As we dive into the Q1 2025 earnings season, investors are keenly watching how companies navigate the current economic landscape. With policy uncertainties looming, the focus is on whether earnings will hold their ground. Surrounding policy uncertainty in the current environment, Q1 2025 earnings are expected to grow by about 7.2%, which is a notable drop from the previous quarter's 18%. Sectors like financials, utilities and technology are set to uphold growth and make Q1 estimates achievable, after the trio showed positive two-week revisions for Q1.


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      The narrative this quarter extends beyond mere financial figures to emphasize strategic positioning. Investors are actively seeking differentiation by delving deeper to identify firms with strong approaches to tariff mitigation, focusing on strategic pricing, effective inventory management and adaptable supply chains. Companies that excel in these areas are poised to be rewarded by investors, while those lacking robust strategies may encounter challenges.

       

      As we move forward, investor attention is increasingly shifting toward companies with strong fundamentals and adaptability. While the broader market has experienced a pullback, opportunities abound for those who can identify firms poised to thrive despite ongoing challenges and uncertainties. Keep an eye on sectors that have shown resilience in adversity and are well-positioned to weather ongoing policy uncertainty.


      Earnings season has just begun


      Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Solutions. Data as of April 14, 2025. Note: early reporters reflect companies reporting 3/31/25 through 4/14/25. Week one starts Monday the week after the J.P. Morgan report (4/11/25).
      The bar chart shows the percent of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings by market cap percent of overall index throughout Q1 earnings season.



      All market and economic data as of 04/15/25 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.


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      Global Investment Strategy Team

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      Disclosures

      Our Top Market Takeaways for April 16th, 2025.

       

      The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision or political election.

       

      Index definitions:

       

      Bloomberg 10-year Municipal Bond Index (BCM10): An unmanaged index that includes investment grade tax-exempt bonds with maturities between 8 and 12 years.

       

      The NASDAQ 100 Index is a basket of the 100 largest, most actively traded U.S companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The index includes companies from various industries except for the financial industry, like commercial and investment banks. These non-financial sectors include retail, biotechnology, industrial, technology, health care, and others.

       

      The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that makes up the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group.

       

      The Standard and Poor's Midcap 400, or simply the S&P Midcap 400, is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.

       

      The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is the equal-weight version of the widely-used S&P 500. The index includes the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company is allocated a fixed weight - or 0.2% of the index total at each quarterly rebalance.

       

      Small capitalization companies typically carry more risk than well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies can carry a higher degree of market volatility than most large cap and/or blue-chip companies.​

       

      Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period.

       

      The S&P 500 Total Return Index is an unmanaged broad-based index that is used as a representation of the U.S stock market. It includes 500 widely held common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation.

       

      We believe the information contained in this material to be reliable but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Opinions, estimates, and investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice.

       

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