Economic Outlook Video & Transcript

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Economic Outlook | Fall 2017

 

Description:In this video, Dr. Chan delivers a presentation in front of a white screen that displays graphs and charts illustrating his data.

On Screen: Black text on a white screen.

Boxed Disclosure: INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS ARE:  • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED

Description: Upbeat electronic music plays.

Description: A montage of a bustling city, a stock market ticker board, and Economist Dr. Anthony Chan. Dr. Chan - a man with short black hair - wears a gray business suit. He walks, speaks, and shakes hands with colleagues. Then, Dr. Chan gives a talk to a group of people in a conference room. White text appears over the scene.

On Screen: Quarterly Economic Commentary with Anthony Chan.

On Screen: Dr. Chan walks in a hall with his colleagues. Next, Dr. Chan sits at a small table with two men in suits. Then, a white screen with black text.

On Screen: Global Momentum. Fall 2017.

Anthony Chan: This quarter we're turning our attention overseas.

On Screen: A montage of beautiful European cities. Next, Dr. Chan delivers his lecture in front of a white screen. Text briefly appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Anthony Chan, PhD. Chief Economist for Chase.

Anthony Chan: While the economic recovery has appeared sluggish to some Americans, our real GDP growth of 13.5% from 2008 to 2017 has far outpaced the 5.3% growth that we've observed in the European Union, or the 3.4% growth in Japan.

Graph on screen: Next to Dr. Chan, a graph appears labeled, “2008 – 2017 GDP Growth.”
Circular bars appear designating:
USA 13.5%, European Union 5.3%, Japan 3.4%

On Screen: Small black text appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Source: Haver Analytics.

On Screen: European buildings featuring beautiful architecture. Then, a busy highway runs the length of a massive city, lit at night. Then, a close-up of the Statue of Liberty at twilight. Next, a large Asian city where locals gather to practice yoga exercises. A silhouetted skyline stands in the distance.

Anthony Chan: Now other developed countries are starting to catch up, and joining the United States, along with China and other emerging markets in powering the world's economic growth.

On Screen: Dr. Chan in front of the white screen.

Anthony Chan: The U.S. economy is still chugging along at about 2.2% this year -

Graph on screen: Next to Dr. Chan, a graph appears labeled, “2017 GDP Growth.” A circular bar graph appears designating:
USA 2.2%

On Screen: Small black text appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

On Screen: Close-up of Dr. Chan.

Anthony Chan: even though the promised reforms of the Trump administration have been very slow to materialize. Surprisingly, this has not led to higher wages or price inflation. So, we don't expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again until December at the earliest, with just two more rate hikes in 2018.

On Screen: Blue text, in quotations, briefly appears next to Dr. Chan.

On Screen: “We Don't Expect The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates Again Until December.”

On Screen: The Eiffel Tower against a deep blue sky. Then, a montage of European city streets.

Anthony Chan: In Europe, the Continent has been suffering from an economic crisis and a political crisis at the same time.

On Screen: Close-up of Dr. Chan.

Anthony Chan: Now, the good news is, we're seeing light at the end of both tunnels. Populist candidates in Holland and France were soundly defeated, which makes it less likely that additional countries will leave the Eurozone.

On Screen: Blue text, in quotations, briefly appears next to Dr. Chan.

On Screen: “Less Likely That Additional Countries Will Leave The Eurozone.”

On Screen: Close-up of Dr. Chan.

Anthony Chan: All this is largely due to improving economic fundamentals. Unemployment rate has come down in the Eurozone to 9.1% from a peak of 12% in 2013. Germany's unemployment rate of 3.8% is the lowest level since they began keeping records.

Chart on screen: Next to Dr. Chan, a bar chart appears labeled, “Unemployment Rate.” The chart’s vertical line shows percentages ranging from 0 to 20, in increments of two. The horizontal line is broken into two halves labeled 2013 and 2017. Blue bars show the Euro Zone at 12% unemployment in 2013 and at 9.1% in 2017. Gray bars show Germany at 5.2% unemployment in 2013 and at 3.8% in 2017.

On Screen: Small black text appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Source: Haver Analytics.

On Screen: Close-up of Dr. Chan.

Anthony Chan: As a result, the European Central Bank is expected to gradually reduce its bond-buying program, although it is unlikely to start raising interest rates until 2018 or 2019.

On Screen: Financial analysts in a large room of computer stations. Then, Dr. Chan in front of a white background.

Anthony Chan: In Japan, thanks to Prime Minister Abe's stimulus policies, we're looking at 1.2% growth in 2017, which would be the third year in a row with GDP growth of 1% or better.

Chart on screen: A bar chart appears labeled, “Japan’s GDP Growth Rate.” The chart’s vertical line shows percentages ranging from 0 to 3, in increments of one. The horizontal line is broken into four sections ranging from 2014 to 2017. Gray bars are labeled to indicate Japan’s GDP growth at 0.2% in 2014; 1.1% in 2015; 1.0% in 2016; and 1.2% in 2017.

On Screen: Small black text appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Source: Haver Analytics, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

On Screen: Close-up of Dr. Chan.

Anthony Chan: Meanwhile, China's economy is maintaining its sizzling growth pace.

On Screen: Blue text, in quotations, appears next to Dr. Chan.

On Screen: “China's Economy Is Maintaining Its Sizzling Pace.”

Graph on screen: A graph appears labeled, “China’s Growth 2017.” A circular bar graph appears designating: +6.9% 2nd Quarter GDP and 4.5% Fiscal Stimulus.

On Screen: Small black text appears at the bottom of the screen.

On Screen: Source: Haver Analytics, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

Anthony Chan: Second quarter growth in China rose to an unexpected 6.9% thanks to enormous fiscal stimulus, equal to 4.5% of their GDP.

On Screen: Dr. Chan in front of a white background.

Anthony Chan: We expect Asia's other emerging markets to profit from the improving global economy, too.

On Screen: A map of Asia appears next to Dr. Chan. Blue pinpoint labels appear over India, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Anthony Chan: Exporting countries like India, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Indonesia will all benefit from rising global demand. What does this mean for American investors? Strong overseas markets are good for the United States, too, because they support a balanced global economy.

On Screen: Blue text, in quotations, appears briefly next to Dr. Chan.

On Screen: “Strong Overseas Markets Are Good For The U.S. Too.”

On Screen: Financial analysts monitor their computer screens. Then, a stock market ticker board. Then, the Christ the Redeemer statue, overlooking Rio de Janeiro. Next, a large city by a bay. Then, financial specialists at their computer stations. Next, Dr. Chan in front of a white background.

Anthony Chan: Investors can benefit from strong exposure to international equities and emerging markets as evidenced by the outperformance of this group in the first half of the year, relative to U.S. equities.

On Screen: Dr. Chan in front of a white background.

Anthony Chan: As always, global diversification is key to participating in this growth while managing your investment risk.

On Screen: Blue text, in quotations, appears briefly next to Dr. Chan.

On Screen: “Global Diversification Is Key To Participating In This Growth.”

On Screen: Fade to a white screen. Black text appears.

On Screen: J.P. Morgan.

On Screen: Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. This video and its content have been developed for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC clients and prospects, is for informational and educational purposes only, and is designed to provide general market commentary and information relating to certain services offered by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. an affiliate of J.P. Morgan Chase and Company. Opinions expressed herin are those of Anthony Chan and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. The information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be trusted as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports.

The information and views expressed are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendation or any individual. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For specific guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your Advisor. Investments in international or emerging markets can be more volatile and involve a greater degree of risk.

Bank deposit accounts, such as checking and savings, may be subject to approval. Deposit products and related services are offered by J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

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© 2017 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

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