What We Learned Last Week
- New estimates show that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.2 percent annualized in 1Q—up from -0.7 percent. Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) rose almost two percent, adding yet another challenge to the GDP story.
- Real consumer spending rebounded in May by slightly more than consensus expectations. New and existing home sales also climbed more than expected. Durable goods orders were held down by new aircraft bookings, but capital goods trends registered solid gains following months-long softness.
What We Expect to See in the Week Ahead
- This week’s economic reports will be all about jobs. Forecasters think June hiring exceeded this year’s 217,000 average monthly pace. Jobless claims likely remained very low.
- Manufacturing activity has been slowed by cutbacks in the energy sector, but strength in other areas, including the booming auto sector, are counterbalancing.