What We Learned Last Week
- Many of the economic reports look soft, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the economy’s recovery pace is soft. Economic data doesn’t necessarily correlate with economic reality over short periods of time.
- Overall inflation remains near zero percent, thanks to the recent drop in energy prices, but core inflation so far is holding steady near 1½ percent, referring to the metric the Federal Reserve relies on, the chain price index for personal consumption expenditures.
What We Expect to See in the Week Ahead
- The week’s reports include new and existing house sales (tempered expectations) and March’s durable goods estimates (forecasts call for a rise).
- Weekly jobless claims are a little volatile around the Easter season but have been signaling little change in the economy’s forward momentum. These figures, which are quite encouraging and which challenge the “slow” story, bear watching.
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